Will Tesla make Optimus available to an outside customer by the end of 2026?
Closed Verified
Closed Resolves
Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if Tesla accepts a binding paid order for an Optimus humanoid robot from at least one customer unaffiliated with Tesla by 31 December 2026 at 23:59 UTC. Otherwise, resolves No.
What counts — and what doesn’t
A refundable expression-of-interest deposit, wait-list registration, non-binding letter of intent, free trial, demonstration, research partnership, or internal use by Tesla or a Tesla-controlled entity does not count. A limited commercial sale to a selected business counts if the customer incurs a binding payment obligation for the robot. Delivery is not required by the deadline once a qualifying order has been accepted. Sales by an unrelated reseller count only if Tesla previously completed a commercial sale of that unit to the reseller.
Sources
Forecasting closed
This question closed on . Forecasting is over.
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2 eligible forecasters
Background
Tesla describes Optimus as a general-purpose autonomous humanoid robot and says it is preparing for volume production. Its first-generation production lines are being installed, but development, internal deployment, and commercial availability to outside customers are distinct milestones.
Revision history
- live verified
bafyreidnhabuj…Published. 2 forecasts on this version
Forecasts (2 people)
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