Will National, ACT and New Zealand First together win a majority of seats in New Zealand’s 2026 election?

Resolution criteria

The outcome is Yes if National, ACT and New Zealand First together hold more than half of all seats allocated in the Electoral Commission’s first official results, including overhang seats; otherwise No. Later recounts, defections or coalition agreements do not affect the outcome. If official results are unavailable by 31 January 2027, the question is marked ambiguous and forecasts are not scored.