Will the Greens increase their party-vote share compared with 2023?

Resolution criteria

The outcome is Yes if the Green Party’s share of nationwide valid party votes in the Electoral Commission’s first official 2026 results, including special votes, exceeds its final 2023 share: 330,907 out of 2,851,211 valid party votes. Exact vote ratios are compared, not rounded percentages. An equal or lower share means No. Later corrections or recounts to the 2026 results do not change this snapshot. If official results are unavailable by 31 January 2027, the question is marked ambiguous and forecasts are not scored.