Will the Opportunity Party win at least 5% of the party vote in New Zealand’s 2026 election?

Resolution criteria

The outcome is Yes if Opportunity receives at least 5% of nationwide valid party votes in the Electoral Commission’s first official results, including special votes; otherwise No. Exact vote totals determine the percentage, rather than a rounded published figure. Winning an electorate with less than 5% does not count as Yes. Later recounts or corrections do not affect this snapshot. If official results are unavailable by 31 January 2027, the question is marked ambiguous and forecasts are not scored.