Will the RBNZ raise, hold, or cut the OCR on 28 October 2026?
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Closed Resolves
Resolution criteria
Resolution will be based on the OCR decision published in the RBNZ’s official monetary policy announcement as listed at https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/the-official-cash-rate on the next scheduled decision date (October 28, 2026, at 2:00 pm), relative to the current rate of 2.75%
Forecasting closed
This question closed on . Forecasting is over.
Community forecast
Community distribution across 3 forecasters
- Hold 49%
- Raise 45%
- Cut 6%
Background
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is the benchmark interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to help maintain price stability and support sustainable employment. Changes to the OCR influence borrowing costs, savings rates, inflation, and economic activity across New Zealand. The RBNZ reviews monetary policy at scheduled announcements, taking into account factors such as inflation, employment, economic growth, and global financial conditions. The Bank may increase the OCR, leave it unchanged, or reduce it depending on its assessment of the economic outlook and progress toward its policy objectives.
Revision history
- live verified
bafyreief73fio…Published. 3 forecasts on this version
Forecasts (3 people)
- Raise 50%Hold 33%Cut 17%
- Hold 70%Raise 29%Cut 1%
- Raise 55%Hold 44%Cut 1%
